Donald Trump’s disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic has left the economy in shambles. The unemployment rate is at an all-time high - 14%, the 158,000 have died from the virus, and millions continue to overwhelm hospitals. Had you asked me in February as to how I thought the 2020 election would go, I would have unequivocally told you that Trump’s chances of winning have only increased as an incumbent. Today, however, my answer could not be more different. I like to refer to Trump as “The Jimmy Carter of the Republican party” for as Jimmy Carter is an embarrassment to the Democrats, Trump is widely regarded as a disaster that will haunt the Republican party for decades to come.
Not only has the formerly divided Democratic party united under Biden and Sanders’ Unity Task Force, the Republican party is in a state of disarray with countless Republicans jumping off of the “Trump Train” and locking horns with Trump’s diehard supporters. If you’ll recall, the three Republican challengers to Donald Trump’s nomination (Bill Weld, Mark Sanford, Joe Walsh) were overwhelmingly defeated by Trump in the polls. While, this wasn’t unexpected, as the frontrunner in primary races are more often than not the incumbent, I can’t help but wonder what the polls would look like if Weld remained in the race, and a poll was conducted today.
I digress, if you use the internet, chances are you’ve come across advertisements put out by a group calling themselves, “The Lincoln Project”, advocating for a Biden presidency. It might surprise you to know that this is not a PAC that traditionally donates to Democratic candidates, but rather is a coalition of anti-Trump Republicans who believe that the country cannot withstand another four years of Donald Trump in office. In a press release, a senior member of the Lincoln Project defended the group from claims made by Trump supporters that the group merely consist of “RINOS” (Republican(s) In Name Only) by pledging, “We have been, and remain, broadly conservative (or classically liberal) in our politics and outlooks. Our many policy differences with national Democrats remain, but our shared fidelity to the Constitution dictates a common effort.”
These claims do not come without evidence, George Conway, wife of Counselor to President Trump, Kellyanne Conway, has been a staunch Republican for the entirety of his life, until 2018 when he filed as an independent in order to attract more undecided voters to the cause of defeating Trump. Other senior members of the group are outspoken about their voting record and loyalty to their party, but are firm in their belief that Trumpism is a greater threat to the Union than a Biden presidency could ever be.
In conclusion: Trump’s prospects for winning reelection are grim. His path to the presidency in 2016 included winning several states that had not voted blue in decades, but the effects of the pandemic on these states, thanks in large part to the federal government’s poor response, leave him with minute chances of winning these states. His popularity continues to wane every day, and powerful up and coming groups like the Lincoln Project won’t let another four years in the Oval Office come easy for him.